Update: More recent iterations are available:
Thanks to those of you who commented on my post last night on my attempts to better understand what’s happening with Coronavirus and how we’re currently doing here in the U.S. My friend, Raj, suggested I do a cleaner version, so I put the data in this Google Spreadsheet and let technology do its thing:
A reminder: These lines represent normalized (by population) daily new cases in the U.S. (blue), China (red), South Korea (yellow), and Italy (green). I haven’t seen anyone else normalize by population, which helps make more of an apples-by-apples comparison. The closest thing I’ve seen is Our World In Data’s sparklines, which are wonderful. (Hat tip to Phoebe Ayers for the pointer.)
I also made two improvements from my previous version:
- The graphs are generated from precise data points rather than my back-of-envelope calculations and sketches. I also made the spreadsheet I used public so that others can double-check or re-use.
- I picked a more precise “Day 0” for each country — the first day with zero new cases followed by a bunch of non-zero days. This worked out to February 27 for the U.S., January 22 for China, February 18 for South Korea, and February 20 for Italy.
Unlike my previous version, I’m showing the full Italy curve. (Wow.) Here’s a zoomed-in version that gives us a better sense of what’s happening in the U.S. (and is also pretty close to last night’s rough sketch, which makes me happy):
The graph suggests that we’ve been able to “flatten the curve” so far, and that aggressive measures by local government and businesses are probably working. However, seeing the curve jump like Italy’s is still not out-of-the-question. We still don’t have widespread testing in this country (although there are positive signs), and — as my friend Sheldon Chang observed — we’re unlikely to be able to implement the aggressive, targeted, digital surveillance that they’re able to do in Asia. More aggressive containment is still a possibility, but for now, I feel like I’m able to breathe a bit easier. Stay vigilant, everyone! Keep your physical distance, wash your hands, and take care!